Gaza Pullout, by Dr. X

While modesty, typically, is not one of my better virtues -- or something I possess in any form -- on the topic of the Gaza pullout I did feel a bit ill-suited to offer my commentary. So in my place, here is the mysteriously-christened Dr. X, a one-time resident of Israel and in my view, one of the most insightful people I know on the topic of Israeli-Palestinian relations. Please read his piece in its entirety -- the good Dr. offers an exceptionally well-reasoned analysis of the current situation and its future trajectory. (And a memo to the author: Dr. X, you have an open invitation any time you would like to turn this Tativille thing into a two person blog. You could write about things people actually care about and I'll stick to my speciality, irrelevancies.) Here it is:

Greetings fellow Tativille reader(s?)! Dr. X here. Ordinarily your eyes would be graced with the witty and insightful words of Michael J. Anderson. However, today's topic concerns Israel's pullout from the Gaza Strip, and since Mike prefers to eat his falafel in lower Manhattan rather than Kfar Darom, he followed his capitalist instincts and outsourced the job to me. So today I'll be playing the political version of a teenage East New Delhian calling myself "Jerome" and asking you if you would like to take advantage of our introductory long distance service prices. The good news is that as a two year resident of suburban Jerusalem (albeit nearly 10 years ago) I am more qualified to talk about Israeli politics than anyone you're likely to run into in the blogosphere. The bad news is that by "more" I mean "less," and by "blogosphere" I mean "average bum in the gutter."

Having said that, let me begin by observing that the Gaza pullout is a bold but partial step towards the development of a fully sovereign Palestinian state. The trouble with predicting the results of bold but partial steps is that they are equally fertile ground for eventual spectacular success and immediate spectacular failure. For instance, the development of limited institutions of rights and representation in the Anglo-Saxon world (the Magna Carta, the House of Commons) acted as progressive footholds for liberty, and helped to usher into existence the freest and most prosperous nations in human history. On the side of the spectrum, the deregulation of California's wholesale power markets (without the concurrent deregulation of retail power prices) led to record rolling blackouts and considerable backlash against deregulation. Perhaps in an alternate reality there is a California where energy companies were able to build more plants in the state; where low rainfall in the Pacific Northwest didn't cut the amount of available hydroelectric power; where a booming tech industry didn't put record demand on the power grid; where corrupt companies didn't realize that the regulated pricing structure could be played like a finely tuned fiddle. In that reality Californians are probably enjoying a fully deregulated market and the blissful lack of a Teutonic Gubernator. But in this reality what could have been the first step toward freer trade at home turned into a cautionary tale against liberalization.

The Gaza pullout has similar potential for success or failure. On the one hand it signals a willingness on Israel's part to take Palestinian territorial claims seriously. It will ostensibly improve freedom of movement within Gaza, remove barriers to Palestinians using their own private lands, and give the fledgling government a chance at proving its legitimacy. On the other hand, the Palestinians (especially the rabble rousers among them) will still have plenty to complain about. Land and sea barriers will likely prevent extensive commerce between Gaza and the world at large, perpetuating its 50% unemployment rate and abysmal per capita income. (Anyone who thinks that rotten domestic government can't inflame Arab hatred of Israel need look no further than Beirut or Damascus for a categorical rebuttal.) Moreover, the removal of the Gaza settlements represents only about 3.3% of settlers in the combined territory of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (and less than 2% if you include Jewish settlement in East Jerusalem). And while the good people of Gaza may be released from the heavy hand of the IDF, it is only to be replaced by the corrupt hand of the PA.

Thus, the worst fears of IsraelÂ’s most ardent Zionists may be realized. An autonomous (but by no means sovereign) Gaza Strip could give Palestinian extremists a safe haven for future terrorism while insufficiently undercutting the message that those extremists preach to their less zealous neighbors. Indeed, the recent launching of Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza may well be a small taste of things to come. If this be the case, Israel's right wing will point to the pullout as "proof" that only force will ensure national security, and the peace process will likely be in a worse position than it was before (if such a thing is possible). If instead the Palestinians of Gaza are able to govern themselves and suppress the terrorists in their midst, the pullout will almost certainly be a significant stepping stone to a self-reliant state.

In the grand scheme of things, the Gaza pullout is unlikely to be the event that leads to Palestinian sovereignty if it is a success, and it is even less likely to lower the curtain on Palestinian sovereignty if it is a failure. Ironically, the day will come when Palestinians will very likely achieve full sovereignty with the whole-hearted support of the Israeli right. Simple demographic trends will see to that. The current population of Gaza and the West Bank is about 3,760,000 compared to Israel's 6,276,000. But the population growth rate in the Palestinian territories is a smoking 3.4%, compared to Israel's rather meager 1.2%. (Cue Mahmoud Abas wearing a Disco Stu jacket: "If these trends continue . . . heeeeeyyyyy.") Assuming these rates stay constant, Palestinians will make up 47% of the area's population in twenty years. In twenty-five years, they will be in the majority. Somewhere along the line Palestinians with no right to rule themselves will come to realize that they can rule themselves and the Israelis too if they are willing to unify the Territories with Israel proper. And if there's one thing the hard right in Israel would hate to see more than a sovereign Palestine, it is a Palestinian-controlled Israel.

While I still have a national audience, I would like to cling to my 15 minutes for another 30 seconds to dole out shame to both sides regarding the pullout. The PA's complaint that the pullout is unilateral is a complete non-sequitur unless we can understand it to mean they are upset that they can't claim the credit for it. Way to put your petty political ambitions above the good of your countrymen, gents. And the gut-wrenching sorrow of the Israeli people to be pulling their fellow-citizens out of their houses is nothing more than lewd hypocrisy. Last I checked there was no national soul searching when a Palestinian home was bull-dozed for the crimes of a family member, or a Palestinian family was impoverished when a security wall denied them access to their own property, or a "targeted retaliation" (read assassination) killed innocent Palestinian bystanders. Human tragedy is just that: human tragedy, regardless of whether the human involved wears a kaffiya or a yarmulke. If Israelis and Palestinians are unable or unwilling to recognize that fact, the prospects for peace between them (with or without Palestinian sovereignty) are dim indeed.